mindwanderings | the weblog of som benegal

The certainty of the weather man is well-known and consequently as uncertain as the weather itself. The vagueness of the meteorologist is as vague as the astrologist. When the meteorologist says it is likely to be overcast and rainy in some area, you can be sure it will be clear and sunny. And vice-verse. Like when the astrologist says don’t be surprised to run into a romantic fling, you can be sure to be surprised to run into an unromantic sting. Both meteorologist and astrologist look at the heavens to seek the inspiration for their predictions. Or they look into their mumbo-jumbo books to arrive at their forecasts. But have you noticed that they are both never specific? It is always either/or and never neither/nor. That is their uncertain certainty or their certain uncertainty.

The met man warns of a tsunami and everyone runs for cover after one bad experience when they were not warned and are fortunate to be alive. But now there’s no tsunami, only a calm, gentle, undulating ocean. And everyone feels foolish. Or when an earthquake is predicted, and there’s not even a shake or tremor. Or a volcano does not ever rumble except when you are assured it is dormant or extinct and suddenly it erupts spewing fire and brimstone and lava running all over overwhelming people. Not for me to tell you how often you are told that the end of the world has come, and you wake up next morning to the twitter of birds and you know, as the poet Browning said, “God’s in his heaven and all’s right with the world.”

Recently, we were told in a blazing headline “Met Predicts Wet Diwali.” Next day Diwali was dry and sunny and everyone had a happy noisy time.

As far as I know there was one absolutely trustworthy forecaster. She was one of Adolph Hitler’s Secretaries – Miss Heidi Durchsichtigkeit (meaning Heidi Seethroughness, or transparent). Every morning Hitler would ask, “Heidi, how is the weather going to be today?” And Heidi would look out of the window, inspect the sky and say, “Mein Führer, it may rain; on the other hand, it may not rain”. And everyone said, “Heidi is always right!”.